Comprehensive demographic analysis with demographic projections for rural and urban areas

The study examines demographic development in the statistical regions of Slovenia. First, we studied the Slovenian municipalities from the point of view of their demographic development and, taking into account their rural or urban character, we formed the demographic settlement types of the municipalities. These types later helped us in the internal division of the regions into demographically homogeneous areas, which formed the basic unit for calculating demographic projections.

Based on the 2018 data, we made demographic projections for the years 2023, 2028, 2033, and 2038 for the demographic settlement types of the municipalities, for the statistical regions by demographically homogeneous areas, for the whole country, and for the disadvantaged border areas.

According to the population projection for the entire period from 2018 to 2038, the number of inhabitants will increase only in the statistical regions Central Slovenia and Coastal–Karst, while it will decrease sharply in the statistical regions Mura, Central Sava, Carinthia and Gorizia. The population will age the most in the statistical regions of Mura, Central Sava, Carinthia and Drava. In the Mura region and Carinthia, the number of people over 64 will exceed the number of children by three times. Only in the statistical regions of Central Slovenia and Upper Carniola and in the statistical region of Southeast Slovenia will the population be younger than the Slovenian average.

Based on the analysis, we have identified the demographically most threatened areas, namely the statistical region of Mura, the area of Haloze and Ormož, the statistical region of Carinthia, Central Sava without the municipality of Litija, the area of Kočevje and Bela Krajina, the area of north-western Upper Carniola, the border area of the region of Littoral–Inner Carniola and the area of the Upper and Middle Soča Valley. The listed areas cover just over one-third of the area of Slovenia and Slovenian municipalities, a good quarter of Slovenian settlements, and one-fifth of the Slovenian population in 2018. These are mostly mountainous, hilly, and often border areas, and it is particularly worrying that seven out of eleven Slovenian municipalities are problematic, which according to the 2018/2038 projection will lose more than 5% of their population.

Demographic analyses show the continuation of population density in the Central Slovenia statistical region and along the greater part of the highway intersection, as well as a decrease in the number of inhabitants in individual towns and extensive border areas. Thus, in spatial and structural terms, predictions made decades ago, when the authors began to point out the demographic threat to Slovenia and the expected spatial consequences of demographic changes, are coming true.

We have compared the obtained results with various studies and in this way defined the relationship between demographic processes and the situation in the region, and in the end, we have also presented a proposal for measures to improve the demographic picture and guidelines for the preparation of professional bases in the field of demography for the preparation of regional spatial plans.